Historical Overview Of Visa Retrogression
The EB-3 (Employment-Based Third Preference) visa category in the United States is designated for skilled workers, professionals, such as Registered Nurses. Retrogression in this context refers to the temporary backward movement or stagnation of the cutoff dates in the U.S. Department of State's Visa Bulletin, which determines when a visa applicant can move forward with their application process. This backward movement can significantly delay the ability of applicants to obtain their green cards.
Understanding Retrogression
Retrogression occurs when the demand for visas in a particular category or from a particular country exceeds the number of visas available for that month. The U.S. government sets annual limits on the number of green cards issued in each visa category and country, based on a quota system established by the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). When the demand is too high, the priority dates (the dates when the petitions were filed) that are "current" in the Visa Bulletin may retrogress, or move backward, causing delays for applicants.
Historical Overview of EB-3 Retrogression
The history of EB-3 retrogression is marked by periods of fluctuating demand, immigration policy changes, and economic factors.
Early 2000s
2001-2005: The early 2000s saw steady demand for EB-3 visas. However, with increased immigration applications following the dot-com boom and changes in immigration policies, the backlog started to grow, particularly for countries like India, China, and the Philippines.
2005: Significant retrogression began in 2005. In May of that year, the priority dates for EB-3 retrogressed by several years for many applicants. For example, the EB-3 category for all countries retrogressed to January 1, 2002, from March 1, 2003, effectively freezing the application process for many individuals temporarily.
Late 2000s
2007: A temporary surge in available visas in the summer of 2007, known as the "July Visa Bulletin Fiasco," allowed many EB-3 applicants to file their adjustment of status applications. However, the surge was short-lived, and by September 2007, the dates retrogressed again significantly.
2008-2009: The global financial crisis led to reduced hiring and, consequently, a decrease in the demand for EB-3 visas. This allowed some forward movement in the priority dates, but the backlog remained substantial.
2010s
2012-2013: This period saw some forward movement in the priority dates for EB-3 visas, particularly for countries other than India, China, and the Philippines, due to changes in the demand patterns. However, these three countries continued to experience significant retrogression.
2015: A significant retrogression occurred in April 2015, when the EB-3 category for all countries except India, China, and the Philippines suddenly became unavailable. This was due to a large number of applications being filed earlier in the fiscal year, which exhausted the annual quota for that category.
2016-2017: The priority dates for EB-3 continued to move slowly, particularly for applicants from India and China, due to the high demand and the backlog of applications.
Late 2010s to Early 2020s
2018-2019: The EB-3 category experienced relatively stable but slow progression of priority dates. India and China continued to face long waiting periods due to the per-country cap and high demand. During this period, efforts to reform the immigration system and eliminate the per-country cap on employment-based visas were discussed, but no significant legislative changes were enacted.
2020-2021: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the immigration process, leading to a temporary reduction in the number of visas issued. Despite this, the EB-3 category saw some advancement in the priority dates due to reduced demand during the pandemic. However, this was short-lived as the demand quickly returned in 2021, leading to retrogression once again.
2022: The Visa Bulletin for EB-3 saw significant retrogression for applicants from India and China due to the high demand and the continued backlog of applications. The dates for other countries moved forward slowly, reflecting the ongoing challenges in managing the high demand for employment-based visas.
Current Trends
As of late 2024, EB-3 there is retrogression, impacting some countries more than others such as India and China, where the waiting times can stretch for years or even decades. The U.S. government continues to grapple with managing the backlog and balancing the demand for employment-based green cards with the available supply.
Factors Contributing to Retrogression
High Demand: The popularity of the EB-3 visa category, particularly among skilled workers from countries like India, China, and the Philippines, has previously outstripped the annual quotas.
Per-Country Caps: The INA imposes a per-country cap, limiting the number of green cards that can be issued to nationals from any one country. This disproportionately affects applicants from high-demand countries such as India and China.
Economic Factors: Economic booms and busts influence the demand for employment-based visas, with retrogression often occurring during periods of high demand.
Policy Changes: Changes in U.S. immigration policy, such as efforts to reform the employment-based visa system or adjustments in visa allocation, can also impact the timing and extent of retrogression.
Possible Future Developments
Ongoing discussions around immigration reform, including proposals to eliminate or adjust the per-country cap for employment-based visas, could potentially reduce the extent of retrogression in the future.
